Our analysis suggests that the UK Net Zero Strategy would deliver in 2100:

A temperature Rise of 2.3 DegC above the pre-industrial average
A CO2 concentration 479 ppm compared to 414.4 in Oct. 2021 and 282.9 in 1850
A sea level rise of 0.98 m putting Battersea at significant risk
434 million people at rise of flooding – including thousands in the UK

We have reviewed the proposals detailed in the UK Government’s Net Zero Strategy. We have translated these proposals into actions which can be simulated in the En-ROADS Climate Action Simulator from Climate Interactive. In addition, we have also taken into account actions already implemented by the UK Government, such as almost entirely removing coal from electricity generation in the UK.

We have analysed the UKs strategy based on:

  1. All the proposed policies / actions being achieved (Achieved);
  2. There being some short fall in delivery due to low levels of engagement / poor implementation (Falls Short); and,
  3. The policies / actions being exceeded due to high levels of engagement / excellence in delivery (Exceeds).

Here’s a summary of the impacts of each scenario in 2100:

(you can click on the scenario title to see the full simulation in En-ROADS)

Impact in 2100Falls ShortAchievedExceeds
Temperature Increase2.7 DegC2.3 DegC1.9 DegC
CO2 Concentration546 ppm479 ppm424 ppm
Net CO2 Emissions+15 Gt/yr+5.95 Gt/yr-0.06 Gt/yr
Emissions GapWideningWideningStabilising
Sea Level Rise1.03 m0.98 m0.94 m
People at Flood Risk440m434m428m
Chance of Ice-free Artic49%30%16%
Fall in Wheat Yield12%9%7%
Fall in Maize Yield15%12%9%
Additional Heat Related Deaths1.1% N. Europe0.9% N. Europe0.7% N. Europe
5.7% SE Asia4.5% SE Asia3.5% SE Asia
Data from En-ROADS Simulations.

Our analysis suggests that, if all nations in the world adopted strategies with a similar level of ambition to that outlined in the UKs Net Zero Strategy, we would make significant progress towards achieving the goals of the Paris Agreement. However, the Achieved scenario still falls short, delivering a 2.3 DegC rise by 2100, with net emissions at almost 6 Gt/yr and increasing, whilst the Falls Short scenario delivers a 2.7 DegC rise.

Our more ambitious Exceeds scenario, in which we assume very high levels of engagement, with targets being met early or exceeded, does lead to a rise of less than 2.0 DegC and the stabilisation of emissions.

However, the UK could do much better:

We have further analysed the Exceeds scenario and identifed additional actions which could be taken to satisfy the Paris Agreement target of limiting global heating to 1.5 DegC. These additional actions are:

  1. More ambition with respect to transport, buildings and industrial efficiency, for example: significant investment in the insulation of buildings;
  2. A 5% annual reduction in rates of deforestation;
  3. The adoption of sustainable levels of meat consumption, similar to those recommended in the EAT Lancet Report; and,
  4. A carbon price of £95/tonne CO2 ($130/tonne).

Scroll down to see a summary of our Paris Target scenario compared with the En-ROADS Baseline scenario representing ‘business as usual’.


We recognise that level of ambition demonstrated in the UKs Net Zero Strategy is world leading, BUT it still falls short of the ambition necessary. Furthermore, this is a plan, but it is a plan that must be implemented, and we have significant concerns regarding the plan’s level of reliance on new, in some cases unproven, technology.

We strongly encourage the UK Government to act now in delivering on, and signifcantly exceeding, this level of ambition and to consider adopting additional policies, such as those hightlighted above, not least to offset some of the risks asscociated with unproven technology.

Impact in 2100Paris TargetEn-ROADS Baseline
Temperature Increase1.5 DegC3.6 DegC
CO2 Concentration381 ppm717 ppm
Net CO2 Emissions-5.29 Gt/yr+39.4 Gt/yr
Emission GAPStabilisingWidening
Sea Level Rise0.88 m1.13 m
People at Flood Risk421m454m
Chance of Ice-free Artic4%97%
Fall in Wheat Yield5%17%
Fall in Maize Yield6%21%
Additional Heat Related Deaths0.5% N Europe1.7% N Europe
2.6% SE Asia9.1% SE Asia
Data from En-ROADS Simulations.

This analysis has been undertaken by Dr. David Faraday for What Next. Dr. Faraday is a trained En-ROADS Facilitator.