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We have reviewed the proposals detailed in the UK Government’s Net Zero Strategy. We have translated these proposals into actions which can be simulated in the En-ROADS Climate Action Simulator from Climate Interactive. In addition, we have also taken into account actions already implemented by the UK Government, such as almost entirely removing coal from electricity generation in the UK.

We have analysed the UKs strategy based on:

1. All the proposed policies / actions being achieved (Achieved);
2. There being some short fall in delivery due to low levels of engagement / poor implementation (Falls Short); and,
3. The policies / actions being exceeded due to high levels of engagement / excellence in delivery (Exceeds).

Here’s a summary of the impacts of each scenario in 2100:

(you can click on the scenario title to see the full simulation in En-ROADS)

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Impact in 2100	Falls Short	Achieved	Exceeds
Temperature Increase	2.7 DegC	2.3 DegC	1.9 DegC
CO2 Concentration	546 ppm	479 ppm	424 ppm
Net CO2 Emissions	+15 Gt/yr	+5.95 Gt/yr	-0.06 Gt/yr
Emissions Gap	Widening	Widening	Stabilising
Sea Level Rise	1.03 m	0.98 m	0.94 m
People at Flood Risk	440m	434m	428m
Chance of Ice-free Artic	49%	30%	16%
Fall in Wheat Yield	12%	9%	7%
Fall in Maize Yield	15%	12%	9%
Additional Heat Related Deaths	1.1% N. Europe	0.9% N. Europe	0.7% N. Europe
	5.7% SE Asia	4.5% SE Asia	3.5% SE Asia

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Our analysis suggests that, if all nations in the world adopted strategies with a similar level of ambition to that outlined in the UKs Net Zero Strategy, we would make significant progress towards achieving the goals of the Paris Agreement. However, the Achieved scenario still falls short, delivering a 2.3 DegC rise by 2100, with net emissions at almost 6 Gt/yr and increasing, whilst the Falls Short scenario delivers a 2.7 DegC rise.

Our more ambitious Exceeds scenario, in which we assume very high levels of engagement, with targets being met early or exceeded, does lead to a rise of less than 2.0 DegC and the stabilisation of emissions.

However, the UK could do much better:

We have further analysed the Exceeds scenario and identifed additional actions which could be taken to satisfy the Paris Agreement target of limiting global heating to 1.5 DegC. These additional actions are:

1. More ambition with respect to transport, buildings and industrial efficiency, for example: significant investment in the insulation of buildings;
2. A 5% annual reduction in rates of deforestation;
3. The adoption of sustainable levels of meat consumption, similar to those recommended in the EAT Lancet Report; and,
4. A carbon price of £95/tonne CO2 ($130/tonne).

Scroll down to see a summary of our Paris Target scenario compared with the En-ROADS Baseline scenario representing ‘business as usual’.

Conclusion

We recognise that level of ambition demonstrated in the UKs Net Zero Strategy is world leading, BUT it still falls short of the ambition necessary. Furthermore, this is a plan, but it is a plan that must be implemented, and we have significant concerns regarding the plan’s level of reliance on new, in some cases unproven, technology.

We strongly encourage the UK Government to act now in delivering on, and signifcantly exceeding, this level of ambition and to consider adopting additional policies, such as those hightlighted above, not least to offset some of the risks asscociated with unproven technology.

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Impact in 2100	Paris Target	En-ROADS Baseline
Temperature Increase	1.5 DegC	3.6 DegC
CO2 Concentration	381 ppm	717 ppm
Net CO2 Emissions	-5.29 Gt/yr	+39.4 Gt/yr
Emission GAP	Stabilising	Widening
Sea Level Rise	0.88 m	1.13 m
People at Flood Risk	421m	454m
Chance of Ice-free Artic	4%	97%
Fall in Wheat Yield	5%	17%
Fall in Maize Yield	6%	21%
Additional Heat Related Deaths	0.5% N Europe	1.7% N Europe
	2.6% SE Asia	9.1% SE Asia

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This analysis has been undertaken by Dr. David Faraday for What Next. Dr. Faraday is a trained En-ROADS Facilitator.